One of the best predictors of future outcomes is revisiting the past so I went back and watched the Oct. 16 Columbia-West Marion matchup for probably the third or fourth time to get a feel for what this Friday night’s rematch will come down to.
In Round 1 of the heavyweight rivalry, the game went to overtime tied 0-0 before the Trojans won 7-6 as Columbia missed the game-tying extra point. While it was a defensive slugfest, both the Trojans and Wildcats moved the ball well at times but just couldn’t finish off drives. Here’s why.
- Columbia’s defensive line, particularly Greg Fortenberry, owned the West Marion offensive line in the run game. The Trojans have run wild this season with Jartavious Martin, Octavious Harvey, Jakaden Mark and Larry Magee combining for 2,483 yards and 31 touchdowns on the ground. But the only time they were able to move the chains in the first matchup was when Martin and Harvey made explosive plays on their own. Mark and Magee, who have combined for 395 yards and six touchdowns through the first two games of the playoffs, weren’t involved at all in the running game in the first matchup. They both offer different change-of-pace running styles that West Marion should try to sprinkle in more the second time around. But if the Trojans can’t block Fortenberry and company, it’s going to be another long night.
- On the opposite side, West Marion’s linebackers, particularly Harvey, dominated Columbia against both the run and pass. Harvey was so quick through the hole and so elusive that Columbia’s linemen couldn’t block him on the second level. If the Wildcats are going to have any success offensively, they’re going to need to find a way to block No. 6.
- As good as Jayden Duncan has been leading the West Marion offense this year, he threw two bad interceptions in the first game. Both times he was trying to throw deep balls and unnecessarily threw off his back foot, leading to poor ball placement. He had enough time to plant his feet and throw more accurate passes both times. When the Trojans need to throw deep, he’s going to need to be more disciplined with his footwork in the pocket.
- Although the game was scoreless, field position had the game on edge for all four quarters. Columbia controlled it through the first quarter-and-a-half, while the Trojans were in plus field position for the remaining two-and-a-half quarters. Whichever team will be able to finish out drives Friday should have the advantage.
- West Marion’s secondary was particularly impressive locking up Dashod Ball, Josh Brown and Kentrell Jackson and causing Wildcats quarterback Carter Smith to hold the ball until the Trojans pass rush got home. With Brown out with a knee injury now, Ball and Jackson are going to need to find a way to get open early.
- Look out for Columbia’s running back screen game. The Wildcats ran one screen late in the fourth quarter in the first matchup that was perfectly set up downfield, but Harvey blew it up before Fortenberry could get into the open field. Had Harvey not tripped him up, the game may have never went into overtime in the first place. Columbia has used the running back screen with great results all year, usually to Omar Johnson.
- Pre-snap penalties, sacks and mishandles in the backfield killed Columbia’s offense. There were so many drives they started facing first-and-15 or second-and-17. It showed up this past Friday too when Columbia beat Hazlehurst 22-0, but Johnson was able to bail the Wildcats out with long runs on third down. Those big runs are a lot less likely against West Marion’s vaunted defense.
Personally, I wish this game wasn’t happening in the middle of the pandemic so everyone in Marion County would be able to enjoy it in person because they don’t get much bigger than this. Columbia and West Marion are arguably the best two teams in Class 3A — Magee may have something to say about that — and this game has all the makings of an instant classic. It may sound cliché, but whichever team can avoid drive-killing mistakes and execute the little things is going to be playing in the South State Championship next week.
