Dear Editor,
For several weeks now, Wyatt Emmerich has continued to write columns on COVID-19. His editorials remind me of Facebook comments made by “experts” from the University of Google. About the only two things we agree on from five articles is that the economy had to be opened up and that in order to keep it open, we all need to practice physical distancing, hand washing and face coverings in public.
In general, like Facebook “expert” commenters, he makes assertions as if they are fact, completely without evidence. For example, he says, “Most news accounts report that 70% of a population must acquire the disease to reach herd immunity. But this isn’t true, it is more like 10%." His assertion that “This isn’t true, it is more like 10%” is an assertion of fact that simply is not known. Facebook “experts” do this all of the time but is it reckless when done by journalists. Demonstrably non-factual information asserted as fact is one reason the public does not trust the media.
Comparing countries by looking at current “deaths per million” is not being honest either. If 50% of a country’s population has been infected it would make sense that they have more deaths per capita than a country who has 1% of its population infected.
Using stats from Worldometer I see India’s current infections are 268 per million. On March 27 the US had 105,527 confirmed cases which is slightly over 268 per million. On that same day, we had recorded 2,113 deaths. Divide that by 331 (U.S. population in millions) to get 6 deaths per million. That is less than the 10 India has now with the same portion of the population infected. We had a LOWER death rate at that time than India. When you apply the same algorithm to the other two countries cited in the column, you get Brazil 236 to the U.S. 369 and Russia 56 to the U.S. 238.
I personally do not trust the Russian data, but there is little doubt that the death rates are dropping but it seems like a long leap for Emmerich to jump straight from “death rates are dropping” to “the virus has mutated into a less lethal form.” The only evidence cited is Muller’s Rachet, which provides a mechanism for Darwin’s natural selection and basically says that living things mutate themselves out of existence. So as I follow it, Emmerich’s reasoning goes, there is now a lower death rate, living things mutate themselves out of existence, therefore the death rate drop for COVID-19 is a result of the virus mutating into a less lethal form. I totally conceded that because the virus does mutate relatively rapidly, such a scenario could happen. However, it seems to me there is a more likely explanation for the drop in death rates. The worldwide medical community has learned a lot about treating COVID-19 over the past few months. Do Dexamethasone and Remdesivir ring a bell? It seems to me as we learn how to treat people, the less will die.
Bottom line is, if I want to read conspiracy theories and wild unsubstantiated assertions and hypotheses, I will go to Facebook comments. We should expect better from professional journalists.
Marvin Adams
Columbia
