Winning on the road is very difficult in college basketball. The opposing team’s fans are covered in body paint and shouting angrily at you, in what gives all the impression of a religious ritual in a pre-civilized culture. You have the cramped locker room – and your opponent controls the thermostat. You’re 6-foot-8 and sleeping in some tiny hotel room bed, while the player you’re matching up against spent the night in the booster-supplied athletic dorm, which more resembles a day spa than our typical idea of what student housing is.
To put it simply, everything’s working against you.
Which is why if you can win road games in college basketball, then you’re proving yourself for the ultimate trial, the NCAA tournament.
So I’ve developed a theory for picking sleepers. Here’s how it works: First take the top 50 teams in RPI because that factors in strength of schedule – whether you play difficult teams or racked up a winning record by scheduling patsies.
Then from there factor in road record only; discount home records entirely because nearly every team in the RPI top 50 has a great home record, but we know that most of them are going nowhere in the tournament.
Here’s my list of NCAA sleepers based on that formula:
Cincinnati, RPI: 7, Road record: 9-2.
The Bearcats have the second-best road record of any team in the top 10 of the RPI, behind only No. 1 Virginia. I’d take them any day to make a deep run over, say, Duke, which has a middling 6-5 mark away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Michigan State, RPI: 15, Road record: 8-1
This is an evergreen selection come March: Tom Izzo’s team will be tough to beat in the tournament. One big reason is the Spartans always rebound well; control the glass, and you often control a tight game. And what do you know, I looked up the national statistics and who do you think leads the 351 schools in total rebounds this season? Yep, Michigan State.
Middle Tennessee, RPI: 28, Road record: 12-1
The Blue Raiders play great defense, ranking 11th in the country in points allowed. You rarely see shootouts in March Madness, the intensity, stakes and pressure are too great. Low-scoring, defensive teams are good picks.
St. Mary’s, RPI: 43, Road record: 10-1
Never heard of St. Mary’s? Not sure if I have either; who cares! What I know is they have won in hostile environments and shoot the three ball well: 40.4 percent, good for 11th in the country. That’s the type of team who can run you out of the gym.
There you have it, but I’ll give one caveat: These predictions imply no liability on my part for your success or lack thereof in your bracket. Let the Madness begin!
Charlie Smith is editor of the C-P. Reach him at 736-2611.
