Anybody who can claim they got every Sweet 16 team right, or more than 10 for that matter, must have some gem of a crystal ball.
Chaos is the best word to describe what happened during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. There are only two No. 1 seeds left, two 2-seeds, two 3-seeds, three 5-seeds, two 7-seeds, two 9-seeds and two 11-seeds.
This is one of the most low-seed-heavy Sweet 16s in recent memory, and now it’s time to make sense of what all will happen Thursday and Friday.
No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 11 Loyola (Chicago): This game is the hardest of the eight matchups to pick as the Wolf Pack and Ramblers won their combined four games last weekend by a total of nine points! In hard-to-predict matchups I always lean toward who has the best player. That would be Nevada and its twin brother pairing of Caleb and Cody Martin.
No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 7 Texas A&M: Michigan is on an absolute tear, winning its last 11 games, while Texas A&M limped into the tournament, losers of four of their last seven regular season games. The Big Dance is all about which team handles the pressure and can rise to the occasion in crunch time. The Wolverines have already proved they can with a buzzer-beating win over Houston, and A&M got by a North Carolina team that was seeded far too high solely because of name power. Wolverines move on.
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Kansas State: As much as I dislike Kentucky, Big Blue is on a roll and playing its best basketball of the season. And I just don’t trust K-State who only had to beat an 8-seed and a 16-seed to reach the Sweet 16. Kentucky point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been amazing and as tough a cover as there is in the entire country since the beginning of the SEC Tournament. He will carry Big Blue into the Elite Eight.
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Florida State: There’s not a chance I’m picking against the Zags despite the Seminoles knocking No. 1 Xavier in the second round. The Bulldogs made it to the National Championship last season, and while they lost two great big men, this year’s squad is even deeper and more talented. Gonzaga knows how to win on this stage and will do it again.
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Clemson: My first upset pick. It took some time, but the Tigers are back to playing great basketball again after losing Donte Grantham late in the season. Meanwhile, Kansas’ status as a No. 1 seed is more about them winning the battle of attrition in the Big 12 than the Jayhawks talent. Sure, they are still very talented, but there is something to be said about a team rebounding after losing one of its best players. As long as Elijah Thomas controls the paint for Clemson, the Tigers will pull off the upset.
No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 5 West Virginia: While Nevada and Loyola is the hardest game to predict, this matchup is nearly as difficult and the game I believe will be the best watch. This is a matchup of arguably the best offense in the country (Villanova) and the best defense in the country (West Virginia). If the Wildcats can break the Mountaineers’ press, they will run away with this one. But there’s a reason why the Mountaineers have been nicknamed “Press Virginia.” They are the best at what they do. Still, Villanova can hurt you in so many different ways, and I believe they will eventually poke enough holes in West Virginia’s defense to pull away.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 11 Syracuse: This game is going to have a bit of an old-school feel to it with both teams running 2-3 zone defenses, and Syracuse is the best in the country every year with its pressure zone defense. But I’m going with the Blue Devils. Duke has already shown it knows how to get quality looks against Cuse’s zone, beating the Orange 60-44 a month ago, and have the bigs — Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. — who can create their own shots in the post.
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 3 Texas Tech: I don’t know how much of an upset you would call a 3-seed over a 2-seed, but I’m counting it as my second upset pick. Purdue was a Final Four pick of mine, but with the injured elbow of Isaac Haas keeping the big man out I’m going with the Red Raiders. Haas has been replaced with 7-foot-3 center Matt Haarms from Amsterdam, but while the freshman can hold his own and block shots, he isn’t very mobile. Texas Tech has three guards — Keenan Evans, Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver — who excel at getting to the rim and are athletic enough to adjust in traffic around Haarms.
